Weekly Market Update – March 7, 2026

By Secure Choice Lending · March 7, 2026 · 4 min read

This week saw mixed signals in the bond market, with the 10-year Treasury yield moving between 4.20% and 4.35%. Mortgage rates largely tracked sideways, with the 30-year fixed averaging 6.65%. Despite the volatility, purchase applications rose 3% week-over-week — a positive sign for spring demand.

The first week of March brought mixed signals for mortgage markets. Bond yields fluctuated between 4.20% and 4.35% as investors parsed conflicting economic data. Ultimately, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate ended the week largely sideways, averaging 6.65% — unchanged from the prior week.

Rates This Week

30-Year Fixed

6.65%

15-Year Fixed

6.01%

5/1 ARM

6.28%

FHA 30-Year

6.22%

VA 30-Year

6.00%

Economic Data Recap

• ISM Services PMI: 53.5 (above 50 signals expansion — slightly stronger than expected).
• Initial Jobless Claims: 218,000 (labor market remains resilient).
• February ADP Employment: +143,000 private sector jobs (slightly below consensus of +155,000).
• Consumer Confidence Index fell modestly to 98.1, reflecting lingering inflation concerns.

The conflicting signals — strong services, softer jobs — explain the sideways rate movement. Bond markets are in 'wait and see' mode ahead of the March FOMC meeting.

Purchase applications rose 3% week-over-week on a seasonally adjusted basis, a positive sign that buyer demand is holding up even as rates remain elevated. The spring market appears to be gaining momentum.

What to Watch Next Week

The FOMC meets March 18–19. While no rate change is expected, the updated dot plot and Chair Powell's press conference will be closely watched for signals about the timing of future cuts. We'll bring you a full analysis immediately following the decision.

Explore Your Mortgage Options

Contact Secure Choice Lending to discuss current mortgage options and your home financing goals.